Summer 2012
promises to be the season of tablet experimentation on a grander scale than
ever.
Just about
every tablet maker, including Apple, is rumored (or expected) to announce (or
launch) a new tablet version within roughly the next four months. The devices
are likely to be smaller in the case of Apple and bigger in the case of Amazon.
Google is
expected to announce an inexpensive tablet with hardware maker Asus at the
Google I/O conference in late June, while a Windows RT tablet from Microsoft
and new-found partner Barnes & Noble could be on tap for late summer or
fall.
Click to
ZoomWith so many different reports of new tablets surfacing, it's time to take
stock of what's coming.
To begin,
here are some general themes seen by analysts for what's coming in the next
quarter:
-
Apple
will grow stronger, even with new competitors like Microsoft. That's not a hard
conclusion to reach, since Apple took 59% of the global tablet market in 2011,
according to IDC, which expects Apple to dominate the tablet market through
2016, at least.
-
Google
will attempt to regain control of a pure Android tablet. Having seen Amazon,
with its Kindle Fire, and Barnes & Noble, with the Nook tablet, selling
forked versions of Android that lessen dependency on Google services and apps,
the company will want to step up its control over the mobile operating system
it created.
-
More
vendors will lower the prices of their tablets to compete with the $200 Kindle
Fire and the Nook.
-
More
LTE-based tablets will emerge, offering faster wireless connections, even
though customers currently prefer Wi-Fi-only models. A move to LTE will become
even more likely once wireless carriers announce shared data plans, possibly
this summer, that enable users to share smartphone and tablet data, possibly
even across a workgroup or a family.
-
Tablet
sizes will vary widely, with touchscreens ranging from 7 to 13 inches
diagonally, although a 10-in. form factor will be dominant. The iPad has a 9.7
in. screen.
Here's
what's on tap for this summer, in order of likely timing:
This
month: Barnes &
Noble and Amazon have already kicked off new TV ad campaigns for their current
Nook Tablet and Kindle Fire models -- both of which have 7-in. touchscreens.
They're hoping to appeal to people shopping for graduation gifts and to clear
out inventory to make room for forthcoming models, analysts said.
May or
June: Amazon is
expected to launch a tablet that's larger than its 7-in. Kindle Fire, but IDC
analyst Tom Mainelli said it's not clear whether it will be a 9.7-in. or
8.9-in. device.
Late
June: In an
announcement that will probably take place at Google I/O, Google is expected to
unveil a $200 tablet called Google Play that will run Android 4.0 (Ice Cream
Sandwich) using a Tegra 3 quad-core processor.
The Google
Play would be built by Asus, possibly co-branded with Google or purely branded
as a Google product. Its biggest distinction would be that it runs plain
vanilla Ice Cream Sandwich, not the versions of Android seen in the Nook and
the Kindle Fire.
August: Dominant tablet maker Apple is
expected to launch a smaller version of the iPad, according to reports in Digitimes
and elsewhere on Wednesday. These reports say the smaller iPad will be a 7-in.
model, although Mainelli said it could be 7.8 in., just shy of two inches
smaller than the current iPad.
Mainelli
said the reports of a smaller iPad have credence. A smaller iPad, he said,
"will help Apple gain traction in regions [like Japan] where the 9.7-in.
tablet has been slower to take off because consumers think it's too big."
A smaller
tablet would also enable Apple to offer a tablet at a lower price, possibly in
the range of $299 to $349, while still maintaining to its historically high
profit margins, Mainelli added.
"Once
Apple owns every price point, from $299 to $829 [for the 64GB new iPad with
Wi-Fi and 4G LTE connectivity], it's going to be very, very difficult for
Android tablets and Windows 8 and Windows RT tablets to compete with
Apple," Mainelli said.
Even today,
Apple's prices have come down, with the 16GB, Wi-Fi-only iPad 2 model selling
at $399, Mainelli added. That level of pricing is attractive to
"cash-strapped consumers as well as educational buyers, who are embracing
the iPad in a major way in some regions," he said.
By late
summer, Microsoft is expected to make clear its plans for Windows 8 and Windows
RT tablets, even if the devices don't ship until fall or later. Any
announcement on that topic is expected to clarify whether Barnes & Noble
and Microsoft, who recently became partners, will cooperate on a Windows
tablet.
Also this
summer, wireless carriers, such as Verizon Wireless and AT&T, are expected
to provide more options for data packaging, where one monthly data plan would
cover service across multiple devices, such as a tablet with a smartphone. That
kind of data packaging could open up interest in LTE-ready tablets, offering
the promise of faster video streaming and browsing.
Mainelli
said Verizon is reported to be the first to offer such a data package. An
AT&T executive at the CTIA conference also said tablets that combine Wi-Fi
and LTE for an affordable price are in the planning stages. AT&T sold out
of its Pantech Element tablet, a Wi-Fi-and-LTE device with a price tag of $399.
Today, an iPad with LTE and Wi-Fi costs $130 more than a Wi-Fi-only model, not
including the cost of a monthly service plan.
"Once
carriers start offering the ability to use one data plan across multiple
devices, then LTE on tablets become very interesting," Mainelli said.
In addition
to whatever new tablets may be announced in the coming months, there are other
notable tablets that we know will begin shipping over the summer. They include
the Toshiba Excite, the largest tablet at 13.3 in. and 2.2 lbs. It will go on
sale June 10, starting at $650 for a 32GB model. It runs Android 4.0 and uses
an Nvidia Tegra 3 quad-core processor.
While it's
uncertain how well such a large tablet will sell, analysts agree that the
Excite 13 is a sign of a fairly staggering amount of diversity in the tablet
market.
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